Human intelligence can sometimes be very closely related with mathematics and probabilistic models. Years ago, MIT Black Jack Team used very simple mathematics proved that beating the casino game Black Jack is totally possible. Up until recently, another MIT team used some probabilistical models scored another $8 million in lottery cash.
How did they do it? Well, I can’t reveal the exact secrets to you guys (because I am selfish and can also definitely use an extra 8 million dollars ), instead I’ll lead you guys through a few interesting “gambling” scenarios and show you how exactly math can help you make some extra cash!
I’d like to start the blog series with couple game strategy problems.
Lottery Problem – What’s the best strategy?
Imagine there is a promotion company offering 1 million people an opportunity to enter one of two unique lotteries for free. You can choose to receive one ticket to enter either a $10,000 drawing or a $2,500 drawing, everybody is given the same choices. Once you made the decision, you will enter the corresponding lottery. There will be only one winner in each lottery, the winner will take the entire prize pool ($10,000 or $2,500). So how would you make the decision?
A lot of people might think $10,000 > $2,500, so it must be a better choice. Is it really though? What if 90% people is entering the bigger lottery, that’ll leave you only 1 in 900k chance to win $10,000.
Some group of people might start to think, well I’ll take my chances in the smaller lottery, payout might be smaller but I’ll get a better chance.
So what about you? How would you come up with an optimal strategy that you know you’ll never regret of making.
Poker Problem – Is there an unbeatable poker strategy given certain scenarios?
Poker is a strategic game that millions of Americans played for well over decades of time. Since the poker boom started a few years ago, a lot more people started to enjoy this game. Since it’s a strategic game, I’d like to present you a scenario for all the poker players out there as a challenge, see if you can find me a unexploitable strategy.
We’ll simplify the game with some preset rules for the sake analysis purposes. Let’s assume the game is a heads up No Limit Hold’em Sit & Go game involving only two players. Each player started with 100 big blinds, one winner will take all money for each game, and they can play for as long as they wish, they can play on however many tables as they wish.
My question is:
Given that the two players have played together for long period of time, and they both are familiar with the opponent’s strategy. Is there a statistically unexploitable strategy that guarantees your play never be a losing strategy in the long run?
Well think about it, leave me some comments, “like” the post with facebook button. If I am happy I’ll suck it up and write post more often